Rants 'n Raves

The current "recession" will likely last longer than Japan's "Lost Decade" or America's "Great Depression".

More bank failures, falling consumer confidence, declining new home sales, long-term unemployment, excessive debt, and future inflation will haunt the U.S. economy for years to come.

The F.D.I.C. is bracing for a wave of bank failures. With bank failures running at their highest level in nearly two decades, the F.D.I.C. is racing to keep up with rising losses to its insurance fund. With so many banks failing, the federal deposit insurance fund has been severely depleted. At the end of 2009, it carried a negative balance of $20.9 billion.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/24/business/24fdic.html

New Home Sales at a Low in U.S. - New-home sales fell 11.2 percent in January (the third consecutive month of declines) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 309,000, the lowest since record keeping began in 1963, the Commerce Department said. Analysts had forecast an increase of 3.5 percent. With January’s numbers so low, and consumer confidence weakening, several economists said they were revising their forecasts.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/25/business/economy/25econ.html

Ben S. Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, said the economic recovery would remain halting for months to come (months ???). He said,"The Federal Reserve will at some point need to begin to tighten monetary conditions to prevent the development of inflationary pressures." Mr. Bernanke predicted that the recovery would be slow. "Obviously unemployment is the biggest problem that we have...the job market remains quite weak."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/25/business/economy/25fed.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

The stock market has partially recovered since the lows of March last year, but that's mostly because corporations have cut back on expenses by laying off workers to accommodate lack of demand for goods and services. Existing workers, who fear losing their jobs, have been pressured to be more productive.

This does not signal an economic recovery, but a decline in Gross National Product...a company can produce less widgets with less employees and still make a profit.

And of course, American corporations continue to out-source overseas for cheaper labor...that also helps their company's bottom line. (I find this to be ironic since most of their products are shipped back to the U.S. for sale here; but to hell with American labor!)

And I fear most of those jobs are lost forever. New hiring can't even come close to the population growth. The ones who are lucky enough to still be working will be burdened with paying Federal, State, and City union pensions for years to come.

See all my well-researched posts on the current unemployment situation:

The New Poor - Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/21/the-new-poor-millions-of-unemployed-face

Government Jobs (Bigger Government) Drive Employment Numbers
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/01/government-jobs-bigger-government-drive

Actual Unemployment in 2010 - Recession Worse than Reported
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/04/actual-unemployment-in-january-2010-rece

Deep Recession Shows No Sign of Letting Up - Maybe Getting Worse
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/24/deep-recession-shows-no-sign-of-letting

Largest U.S. Labor Union: AFL-CIO says Jobs Won't Return
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/01/07/largest-u-s-labor-union-afl-cio-says-job

More Bad News for the Unemployed in 2010 - and Beyond
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/23/more-bad-news-for-the-unemployed-in-2010

Almost 1 out of 5 People are Out of Work in the U.S.A.
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2009/12/31/unemployment-december-2009-new-release

FOX News Wages War on Unemployed - Thinks They're Lazy
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/02/real-reason-why-extended-unemployment-be

Tea Party, Fox News, and Conservatives Attack the Unemployed
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/04/tea-party-gets-in-wrong-on-unemployment

Extended Unemployment Benefits in 2010 - Fully Explained
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/02/16/extended-unemployment-benefits-in-2010

The National Tea Party Convention presented a Special Screening: "Generation Zero - The Truth About the Financial Meltdown".

"Generation Zero," a Citizens United production, was also featured and well-received at the 2010 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC).

Tonight it was reviewed by Sean Hannity on FOX News.

SEE >>> http://generationzeromovie.com for preview

What stood out the most to me was that ever since Wall Street investment houses went from being partnerships to publicly traded stocks, the partners evaded responsibility for huge risks and took large profits for a prize. Stockholders and taxpayers got the bill when Wall Street made risky investments that went bad, but investment brokers got to keep their mansions and airplanes while the rest of us suffered great losses. (Doesn't the recent Wall Street activity just prove that?)

"Generation Zero" was written and directed by awarding-winning director, Stephen K. Bannon. In addition Mr. Bannon and Alan Peterson acted as producers.

"This film is about a crisis - one that is as profound as The Revolution, The Civil War, or The Great Depression and WWII," says Bannon. "The title ‘Generation Zero’ is ironic, as it refers to both the Baby Boomers and the generation born today: the one generation whose greed and fiscal mismanagement has destroyed the financial legacy and inheritance of the other."

The trailer is on one of Andrew Breitbart's Big Government web sites: Big Hollywood

A comment by Peter Alberice:

As a Baby Boomer, the question I ask myself, and I suspect many others as well, is no longer what's in it for me but, "what have I contributed or accomplished?"

It is a sobering question for Boomers who have surfed the great wave of post WWII prosperity without a whole lot of effort relative to the struggles that prior generations have had. The founders of our country, those living through the Civil War, and the Great Depression come to mind.

Recently, the last two living WWI veterans of the British Army passed away and soon, the Greatest Generation will pass as well. We will be on our own. We will become the gatekeepers and the guardians for the generations to follow.

Now, instead of not trusting anyone over 30, we will not trust anyone under 30; not because of a deep animosity towards a younger generation, but a realization that the naiveté of our youth apologized for some of the latter part of the 20th Century's great tragedies and villains ( Che, Pol Pot, Mao). We are seeing that same naiveté in those 30 or younger, some of whom think that life is nothing but a free download and that "hope and change" have meaning. We’ve been there before. We are now as the default guardians of the West's free democracies and markets. Will we as a generation be able to step up to the challenges at hand?

The release of Generation Zero comes at a time when citizens of our nation, and Boomers in particular, are struggling to understand why our economy and our nation’s exceptionalism have been challenged to such a critical level not seen since the Great Depression. This is a timely film.

Formula shows why it’s so hard to cut jobless rate
By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The economy’s 5.7 percent growth last quarter (the fastest pace since 2003) was a step toward shrinking the nation’s 10 percent unemployment rate.

There’s just one problem: Growth would have to equal 5 percent for all of 2010 just to lower the average jobless rate for the year by 1 percentage point.

And economists don’t think that’s possible.

Most analysts say economic activity will slow to 2.5 percent or 3 percent growth for the current quarter as the benefits fade from government stimulus efforts and from companies drawing down less of their stockpiles.

That’s why the Federal Reserve and outside economists think it will take until around the middle of the decade to lower the double-digit jobless rate to a more normal 5 or 6 percent.

Another way of looking at it: A net total of about 3 million jobs would have to be created this year to lower the average unemployment rate by 1 percentage point for 2010, economists estimate. Yet even optimists think the creation of 1 million net jobs is probably out of reach this year.

High unemployment poses a risk to the unfolding recovery because it leads consumers to spend less, keeping economic growth weak. A sharp pullback in spending might even push the economy back into recession. Joblessness also represents a danger for President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party in this fall’s congressional elections.

The National Association for Business Economics and the International Monetary Fund think gross domestic product will rise just under 3 percent for all of this year. GDP, the best gauge of economic activity, measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States.

To get a sense of just how deep a dent the worst recession since the 1930s has made in the economy, consider this: The economy shrank 2.4 percent for all of 2009 - the sharpest drop since 1946. It was also the first annual decline since 1991.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com, and Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock, agree that the economy would have to grow roughly 5 percent for all of 2010 just to ratchet down the average unemployment rate for the year by 1 percentage point - to a still-high 9 percent.

Their math is based on Okun’s law, named for economist Arthur Okun. In 1962, Okun produced a formula for the connection he saw between unemployment and economic activity.

Exactly how much GDP growth is needed to lower the unemployment rate for a given period varies. That’s because the formula involves several factors besides GDP growth. It also considers, for example, businesses’ productivity growth.

When the economy was recovering from the 2001 recession, it took two years to reduce the unemployment rate by nearly a full percentage point: It fell from 6 percent in 2003 to 5.1 percent in 2005. GDP growth averaged just over 3 percent.

Economists say the formula hasn’t always held up perfectly in recent decades. Rather, it’s relied upon as a rough rule of thumb for determining how much growth will be needed to lower unemployment.

But a near-textbook case occurred in 1976, when the economy expanded at a 5.4 percent pace. As Okun would have predicted, that growth drove down the unemployment rate by nearly a full percentage point: from 8.5 percent in 1975 to 7.7 percent.

See all my well-researched posts on the current unemployment situation:

The New Poor - Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/21/the-new-poor-millions-of-unemployed-face

Government Jobs (Bigger Government) Drive Employment Numbers
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/01/government-jobs-bigger-government-drive

Actual Unemployment in 2010 - Recession Worse than Reported
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/04/actual-unemployment-in-january-2010-rece

Deep Recession Shows No Sign of Letting Up - Maybe Getting Worse
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/24/deep-recession-shows-no-sign-of-letting

Largest U.S. Labor Union: AFL-CIO says Jobs Won't Return
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/01/07/largest-u-s-labor-union-afl-cio-says-job

More Bad News for the Unemployed in 2010 - and Beyond
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/23/more-bad-news-for-the-unemployed-in-2010

Almost 1 out of 5 People are Out of Work in the U.S.A.
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2009/12/31/unemployment-december-2009-new-release

FOX News Wages War on Unemployed - Thinks They're Lazy
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/02/real-reason-why-extended-unemployment-be

Tea Party, Fox News, and Conservatives Attack the Unemployed
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/04/tea-party-gets-in-wrong-on-unemployment

Extended Unemployment Benefits in 2010 - Fully Explained
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/02/16/extended-unemployment-benefits-in-2010

By PETER S. GOODMAN for the New York Times
Published: February 20, 2010
(Excerpted for this post)

Even as the American economy shows tentative signs of a rebound, the human toll of the recession continues to mount, with millions of Americans remaining out of work, out of savings and nearing the end of their unemployment benefits.

Economists fear that the nascent recovery will leave more people behind than in past recessions, failing to create jobs in sufficient numbers to absorb the record-setting ranks of the long-term unemployed.

Call them the new poor: people long accustomed to the comforts of middle-class life who are now relying on public assistance for the first time in their lives - potentially for years to come.

Yet the social safety net is already showing severe strains. Roughly 2.7 million jobless people will lose their unemployment check before the end of April unless Congress approves the Obama administration’s proposal to extend the payments, according to the Labor Department.

Every downturn pushes some people out of the middle class before the economy resumes expanding. Most recover. Many prosper. But some economists worry that this time could be different. An unusual constellation of forces - some embedded in the modern-day economy, others unique to this wrenching recession - might make it especially difficult for those out of work to find their way back to their middle-class lives.

Labor experts say the economy needs 100,000 new jobs a month just to absorb entrants to the labor force. With more than 15 million people officially jobless, even a vigorous recovery is likely to leave an enormous number out of work for years.

Some labor experts note that severe economic downturns are generally followed by powerful expansions, suggesting that aggressive hiring will soon resume. But doubts remain about whether such hiring can last long enough to absorb anywhere close to the millions of unemployed.

Some labor experts say the basic functioning of the American economy has changed in ways that make jobs scarce - particularly for older, less-educated people who have only a high school diploma.

Large companies are increasingly owned by institutional investors who crave swift profits, a feat often achieved by cutting payroll. The declining influence of unions has made it easier for employers to shift work to part-time and temporary employees. Factory work and even white-collar jobs have moved in recent years to low-cost countries in Asia and Latin America. Automation has helped manufacturing cut 5.6 million jobs since 2000 - the sort of jobs that once provided lower-skilled workers with middle-class paychecks.

Some 34 million people were hired into new and existing private-sector jobs in 2000, at the tail end of an expansion, according to Labor Department data. A year later, in the midst of recession, hiring had fallen off to 31.6 million. And as late as 2003, with the economy again growing, hiring in the private sector continued to slip, to 29.8 million.

It was a jobless recovery: Business was picking up, but it simply did not translate into more work. This time, hiring may be especially subdued, labor economists say.

Traditionally, three sectors have led the way out of recession: automobiles, home building and banking. But auto companies have been shrinking because strapped households have less buying power. Home building is limited by fears about a glut of foreclosed properties. Banking is expanding, but this seems largely a function of government support that is being withdrawn.

At the same time, the continued bite of the financial crisis has crimped the flow of money to small businesses and new ventures, which tend to be major sources of new jobs.

If, as Mr. Sinai expects, the economy again expands without adding many jobs, millions of people will be dependent on an unemployment insurance already being severely tested.

"The system was ill prepared for the reality of long-term unemployment," said Maurice Emsellem, a policy director for the National Employment Law Project. "Now, you add a severe recession, and you have created a crisis of historic proportions."

Some poverty experts say the broader social safety net is not up to cushioning the impact of the worst downturn since the Great Depression. Social services are less extensive than during the last period of double-digit unemployment, in the early 1980s.

On average, only two-thirds of unemployed people received state-provided unemployment checks last year, according to the Labor Department. The rest either exhausted their benefits, fell short of requirements or did not apply.

Yet as jobs have become harder to get, so has welfare: as of 2006, 44 states cut off anyone with a household income totaling 75 percent of the poverty level - then limited to $1,383 a month for a family of three - according to an analysis by Ms. Albelda.

"We have a work-based safety net without any work," said Timothy M. Smeeding, director of the Institute for Research on Poverty at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. "People with more education and skills will probably figure something out once the economy picks up. It’s the ones with less education and skills: that’s the new poor."

Full story here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/21/business/economy/21unemployed.html

See all my posts on the current unemployment situation:
Like the last Great Depression, Unemployment and Foreclosures, Might See Rise in Suicides
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/10/unemployment-foreclosures-might-see-rise

The New Poor - Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/21/the-new-poor-millions-of-unemployed-face

Government Jobs (Bigger Government) Drive Employment Numbers
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/01/government-jobs-bigger-government-drive

Actual Unemployment in 2010 - Recession Worse than Reported
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/04/actual-unemployment-in-january-2010-rece

Deep Recession Shows No Sign of Letting Up - Maybe Getting Worse
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/24/deep-recession-shows-no-sign-of-letting

Largest U.S. Labor Union: AFL-CIO says Jobs Won't Return
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/01/07/largest-u-s-labor-union-afl-cio-says-job

More Bad News for the Unemployed in 2010 - and Beyond
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/23/more-bad-news-for-the-unemployed-in-2010

Almost 1 out of 5 People are Out of Work in the U.S.A.
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2009/12/31/unemployment-december-2009-new-release

FOX News Wages War on Unemployed - Thinks They're Lazy
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/02/real-reason-why-extended-unemployment-be

Tea Party, Fox News, and Conservatives Attack the Unemployed
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/04/tea-party-gets-in-wrong-on-unemployment

Obama-Care © Verses Unemployment and Suicide in 2010
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/07/out-of-work-buy-a-shotgun

27 Million of 154 Million in Workforce w/o Jobs
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/15/27-million-of-154-million-in-workforce-w

Fox News Continues to Insult Unemployed
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/13/fox-news-continues-bashing-the-jobless

"Diversity" and Illegal Hiring Practices
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog2.php/2010/03/12/mgm-mirage-illegal-hiring-practices

Obama-Care© Makes it Easier to Fire Older Workers!
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog5.php/2010/03/27/obama-carec-makes-it-easier-to-fire-olde

Too Old for the Workforce in 2010 - Unemployed Because of Age
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/06/too-old-for-the-workforce-in-2010-unempl

No, Unemployment Benefits is not an Inalienable Right
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/15/no-unemployment-benefits-is-not-inaliena

Senator John Ensign and the GOP - "Let the Jobless Eat Cake"
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/27/john-ensign-and-gop-let-the-jobless-eat

The Jobless Have Been Lost in Debate Over Healthcare
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/27/the-jobless-lost-in-debate-over-healthca

Extended Unemployment Benefits - Fully Explained - UPDATED
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/02/16/extended-unemployment-benefits-in-2010

The real reason Evan Bayh is leaving Congress might be to avoid being further scrutinized of his and his wife's financial holdings in healthcare stocks, and why he DID in fact vote for Obama's healthcare plan. I believe it's only a ruse to salvage his career.

All this mealy-mouth talk about being conservative in government spending is just plain hog wash...look how he voted on healthcare!

Notice: He's not resigning, he's just announcing that he won't be running for re-election again.

Evan has ALWAYS been an avid supporter of Obama (almost in a loving way) and is just jumping a sinking Democratic ship (even though oddly, Evan personally may be leading the polls in his own State).

Evan Bayh's wife, Susan, owned up to $1 million in employee stock in WellPoint, the Indianapolis-based insurance giant on whose board she sits.

Read more...
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2009/12/25/evan-bayh-healthcare-reform-it-s-all-abo

ALSO SEE "California insurer to face questioning over rate hike."

A U.S. House of Representatives committee will question executives from Anthem's parent company, WellPoint Inc. of Indianapolis, about its rate proposals.

Story continued here:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9E1P3H80&show_article=1