Rants 'n Raves

March 1, 2010: U.S. Economic Update (in a nutshell)

Jobs data will start getting a boost from the government, as the Census Bureau has said it expects to hire 181,000 workers from January to March and 971,000 in the following three months, peaking in May, where they are anticipating adding 500,000 workers (all temporary jobs).

We have a 105 million households in the U.S with a current population of 308,785,659 Source: http://www.census.gov

Of those 971,000 census workers, how many will be hired from ACORN and their affiliates (think of election campaigns); how much will they be paid by the American taxpayers?

"These short-term jobs offer good pay, flexible hours, paid training, and reimbursement for authorized work-related expenses."
Source: http://2010.census.gov/2010censusjobs/

Personally, I believe this is politically motivated and will be manipulated by the Democrats to redraw demographics for Democratic representation in voting districts.

The unemployment rate is estimated to increase to 9.8%, from 9.7% last month (Though I argue the REAL unemployment figure is closer to 17%).

Initial jobless claims have leveled off somewhat but are still at a troubling high level, indicating continued slack in the labor market and restrained wage inflation.

Housing remains a concern, as building permits were down 4.9% in January, and new home sales fell a surprising 11.2%, their lowest level on record.

The Federal Reserve is set to end its support of the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market at the end of the first quarter, which could push mortgage rates higher.

Billions of dollars of so-called "option ARMs" come due this year, which could put renewed pressure on foreclosures.

The FED has ended its purchases of US Treasuries, and on February 18, it raised the discount rate (the rate banks pay to borrow from the Fed directly) from 0.50% to 0.75%...may indicate more tightening of credit.

The federal government stares at massive deficits and tries to figure out how to deal with the growing debt problem; debt and deficit spending is accelerating.

How the U.S. deficit is reduced will likely be even more difficult than the Fed’s job of balancing monetary policy. There are three main options for potential deficit reduction - raising taxes, cutting spending, and growing the economy.

Raising taxes too much could stifle the economic recovery, while cutting spending is [not what the current administration and Democrats are prone to do.] Uncertainty regarding government action is a major factor restraining business investment and hiring.

Economic recovery in the United States might look stronger than either the eurozone or Japan because gross domestic product (GDP) readings for the fourth quarter showed growth of 5.9% in the United States [I say it's only because of band-aid fixes like the government's stimulus pork projects, cash-for-clunkers, etc]. GDP was only up 0.4% in the eurozone and 4.6% in Japan (but Japan is facing deflation). While growth in the eurozone and Japan most likely will grow at a slower pace, China is expected to remain strong throughout 2010 - their GDP was 10.7%

The U.S. dollar strength effectively raises the value of the Chinese yuan due to the dollar peg. (Some economists suggest China allow a higher inflation rate relative to the United States, making goods more expensive in dollar terms and partially acting as an exchange rate increase.)

http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/research_strategies/market_insight

See all my well-researched posts on the current unemployment situation:

Unemployment - Foreclosures, Might See Rise in Suicides
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/10/unemployment-foreclosures-might-see-rise

The Great Depression: Then and Now - Is There a Difference?
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/08/the-great-depression-then-and-now-is-the

The New Poor - Millions of Unemployed Face Years Without Jobs
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/21/the-new-poor-millions-of-unemployed-face

Government Jobs (Bigger Government) Drive Employment Numbers
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/01/government-jobs-bigger-government-drive

Actual Unemployment in 2010 - Recession Worse than Reported
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/04/actual-unemployment-in-january-2010-rece

Deep Recession Shows No Sign of Letting Up - Maybe Getting Worse
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/24/deep-recession-shows-no-sign-of-letting

Largest U.S. Labor Union: AFL-CIO says Jobs Won't Return
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/01/07/largest-u-s-labor-union-afl-cio-says-job

More Bad News for the Unemployed in 2010 - and Beyond
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/02/23/more-bad-news-for-the-unemployed-in-2010

Almost 1 out of 5 People are Out of Work in the U.S.A.
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2009/12/31/unemployment-december-2009-new-release

FOX News Wages War on Unemployed - Thinks They're Lazy
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog1.php/2010/03/02/real-reason-why-extended-unemployment-be

Tea Party, Fox News, and Conservatives Attack the Unemployed
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/03/04/tea-party-gets-in-wrong-on-unemployment

Extended Unemployment Benefits in 2010 - Fully Explained
http://tobuds.com/blogs/blog3.php/2010/02/16/extended-unemployment-benefits-in-2010

Senator Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) filibustered unemployment insurance, COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was not pay-as-you-go. His amendment sought to find the funds from the Stimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but a bill such as this only adds to the growing deficit and should be paid for immediately.

Bob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to break his filibuster until 11:48 PM EST. When Senator Jeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit."

In Bunning's closing comments to the senate floor he said Democrats were remiss in causing him to miss the Kentucky basketball game vs South Carolina. (Bunning, 78, a former Major League Baseball pitcher who is in the Hall of Fame, is considered one of the more eccentric members of the Senate.)

In an e-mail I recieved from Senator Harry Reid he states: "Over the past week, my colleagues and I have worked diligently to prepare legislation that will provide an immediate extension of unemployment benefits to American families in need. I, however, have been disappointed to see this important legislation blocked by Senator Jim Bunning (R-KY). Senator Bunning has objected to repeated calls for "unanimous consent" on the Senate floor that would allow the Senate to pass the proposed extension. This obstructionism on an issue that is so very important to jobless Nevadans has been, to say the least, very discouraging. Senator Bunning's attempts notwithstanding, I am confident that we will pass this legislation soon."

But Bunning blames Harry Reid: "Remember now, this all could’ve been changed had not the leader of the Senate decided that a bipartisan compromise jobs bill was not as important as his partisan jobs bill that just passed just before all of this debate," he said in his final remarks.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0210/33566.html

Desiree Rogers has been given her leisure to FINALLY "step down" after the scandal broke about the White House party crashers 3 months ago.

Desiree Rogers proceeded over 330 events in the White House over the past 14 months - or 1.3 parties every day since Obama hired her!

I'm sure her resume is up-to-date.

http://www.suntimes.com/2072121,desiree-rogers-quits-022610.article

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/02/26/desiree-rogers-to-leave-white-house

http://washingtonscene.thehill.com/in-the-know/36-news/2421-white-house-social-secretary-desiree-rogers-to-step-down

http://blogs.suntimes.com/sweet/2010/02/white_house_social_secretary_d.html

...and the ones who do it should be hailed as heroes, because Reyes and McDermott are underminung the safety of our brave soldiers in Afghanistan and Iraq, putting them in greater danger - and further risking their lives (and the lives of American citizens here at home).

Reyes and Jim McDermott's ideologies are directly tied to the Progressive Eric Holder, and Holder's hiring of lawyers who defend Islamic terrorists.

Democrats tried to sneak a provision into the intelligence authorization bill that would establish criminal punishment for CIA agents and other intelligence officials who engage in "cruel, inhuman and degrading treatment" during interrogations.

An 11-page addition was inserted into the bill late Wednesday night as the House Rules Committee considered the legislation.

The provision, previously not vetted in committee, applies to "any officer or employee of the intelligence community" who during interrogations engages in beatings, infliction of pain or forced sexual acts. The bill said the acts covered by the provision would include inducing hypothermia, conducting mock executions or "depriving the [detainee] of necessary food, water, sleep, or medical care."

The language gives Congress the discretion to determine what the terms mean, and it would level punishments of up to 20 years in prison, and in some cases, life sentences if a detainee dies as a result of the interrogation.

Intelligence Committee Chairman Silvestre Reyes (D-Texas) added the language, originally offered by Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Wash.), to his manager’s amendment, which makes several changes to the bill passed by committee.

Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.) said the language underscores existing law and enhances national security. (Schakowsky backed ACORN, is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, is a friend of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, supports the "public option", was a supporter of Gov. Pat Quinn and SEIU.)

Reyes’ manager’s amendment also includes language that would change the rules governing executive branch notification to Congress about covert intelligence operations.

On December 1, 2006, Silvestre Reyes was tapped by Nancy Pelosi to be the new chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. As a Mexican-American, he was instrumental in leading the opposition to the House immigration reform bill proposed by James Sensenbrenner, H.R. 4437. Reyes was against "The Surge" in Iraq.

The issue of changing the notification process became a priority last year after a partisan fight over when and how Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was informed about the use of harsh interrogation techniques such as waterboarding. The media spotlight grew hotter after a briefing in June when CIA Director Leon Panetta informed lawmakers that the agency had failed to notify them about plans for an assassination program begun in 2001 that was designed to capture or kill al Qaeda leaders.

One intelligence source described the debate as bizarre. "You've really got to wonder what's going on here. The CIA no longer has a detention and interrogation program. That ended in January 2009 by executive order. It's over, so the need for this proposal is your classic head-scratcher," the source said.

Like Jan Schakowsky, Jim McDermott (from Chicago, Illinois) is also a member of the House Progressive Caucus.

After a visit to Iraq in 2002, McDermott received a $5,000 contribution to an unrelated legal defense fund from Shakir al Khafaji, an Iraqi-American businessman with alleged ties to the Oil for Food scandal. McDermott returned the contribution in 2004 after it was questioned in the media.

On April 28th, 2004, Congressman McDermott omitted the phrase "under God" while leading the House in reciting the Pledge of Allegiance

In December 2004, Rep. McDermott came under investigation by the House Ethics Committee when they had to determine whether he violated standards of conduct for leaking an illegally recorded telephone conversation during a committee investigation in 1997. At that time, the committee was investigating the conduct of then-Speaker Newt Gingrich. (No action was ever taken by the Ethics Committee against Gingrich). On March 31, 2008, Chief Judge Thomas Hogan of the United States District Court for the District of Columbia ordered McDermott to pay $1.05 million to Boehner, covering attorney's fees, costs and interest. McDermott also has had to pay over $60,000 in fines and close to $600,000 to his own lawyers.

This blogger: No one in al Qaeda participated in the Geneva Convention, and al Qaeda, as an army, represents no one country (and their homicidal members are not citizens of the U.S.) - They hack the heads off innocents, drag their dead bodies through the street, hang them from bridges, hide behind children when shooting at U.S. soldiers, praises a deity that they claim will give them virgins for using kamikaze tactics to slaughter thousands...they are demented and rabid animals and should be treated as such. But the Democrats want to read them their "rights".

The Democrats and their love affair with these Muslim terrorists is sickening!

And Silvestre Reyes and Jim McDermott, who like cowards, tried to sneak this legislation through, can join them in hell. Read their resumes - they too are scum.

Silvestre Reyes and Jim McDermott - two Democrats and two more reasons why we should vote ALL the Democrats out of office this year. It seems that every day I am finding it increasingly difficult to find ANY good apples in the Democrat's basket...it has been poisoned with too many "Progressives".

- - - Tell the PROGRESSIVES I said so - - -

Silvestre Reyes - http://reyes.house.gov/Contact

El Paso Office
(Open Monday-Friday 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. - closed on federal holidays)

310 N. Mesa
Suite 400
El Paso, Texas 79901
Phone: (915) 534-4400
Fax: (915) 534-7426

Washington, D.C. Office
(Open Monday-Friday 9 a.m. – 6 p.m. EST - closed on federal holidays)

2433 Rayburn House Office Building
Washington, D.C. 20515
Phone: (202) 225-4831
Fax: (202) 225-2016

Jim McDermott - http://www.house.gov/mcdermott/contact.shtml

Office via telephone at (202) 225-3106 or by fax at (202) 225-6197

If you are a constituent of Washington's 7th district, contact Congressman McDermott's office in Seattle by phone (206-553-7170) or fax (206-553-7175)

Sources:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/83817-gop-cries-foul-over-amendment-to-intel-bill

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/26/house-tries-pass-intel-controversy-cia-punishment/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+foxnews%252Fpolitics+%2528Text+-+Politics%2529

I had been watching the Healthcare Summit all day today. At the end of over 7 hours of discussion (in which the Democrats and Obama dominated the time by 2 to 1) Obama spent more time pontificating than actually promoting a real consensus. His excuse for using up so much time was, "because I'm the President." (Nancy Pelosi, as usual, wasted her share of time by just spewing more silly nonsense).

But Obama made it perfectly clear in the last 5 minutes of the summit that the Democrats would use the nuclear option to pass their healthcare bill.

Note: Early on in the discussion Reid denied that any Democrat ever considered using the nuclear option...that raised a few eye brows!

Obama controlled and changed the subject matter; or moved on to another speaker when asked about something he felt uncomfortable answering.

Obama also attempted to demean Senator John McCain by saying "the campaigning is over" when McCain legitimately asked about the backroom deals (Louisiana Purchase, the Unions, etc). Then Obama talked over him when McCain tried to reply (a typical far left-wing maneuver - and very disrespectful to the Senator).

But despite their lack of fair time allotment, the Republicans clearly showed that they were NOT the party of "NO". In fact, they made many common sense recommendations, but it appeared that Obama winced at most of them...his mind having already been made up before going in to the discussions.

The part about extending coverage to adult-dependent children (up to the age of 26) really irked me...another Democratic ploy to issue hand-outs to gain the young votes. Tell those "kids" to get off their lazy ass and get REAL jobs, just like older unemployed people without jobs and healthcare must do!

Only by fixing unemployment first, can our leaders improve healthcare costs, not by One-Upmanship

It's not just about insuring more people, but of lowering the cost of healthcare - which will do both. Lower the cost by creating a larger pool of employed people, and you will increase the availability of healthcare.

Children with genetic diseases, young adults practicing risky behavior, and the elderly with a natural biological breakdown of their bodies can all be covered in this way.

One radical idea would be to do away with Medicare entirely and have a National Healthcare Plan for all...the only difference being to "Obamacare" (to fund this) is to have all working people pay a percentage of their wages (such as a 5% National Healthcare Tax) and get rid of the capital gains tax to encourage re-investment and just impose a 5% National Healthcare Tax on those type of profits.

Put this revenue into one single healthcare insurance pool for all citizens, which would be used to pay for any insurance policy that the individual (or collective group) wanted - - - and from any insurance company they choose. There would be no "high risk" pools. Insurance companies can compete for the business. (Eventually this would be narrowed down to a selective few, with less competitive and mis-managed companies dropping out of the healthcare insurance business altogether.)

Then, only "Healthcare insurance reform" would be needed and should include portability, prohibiting cancellations, eliminate caps on lifetime care, and covering pre-existing conditions.

So far, my take:

1 - One reason why insurance premiums have been going up is because 17 million unemployed people have no longer been paying into the pool over the last 2-year recession. That's why JOBS should be the first order of the day, not "healthcare reform".

2 - Healthcare COST is what should be addressed, to increase availability. Eliminating waste and fraud should not just be promised, but implemented first before any "reform" is initiated. Health insurance investigators from the private sector, working on a commission basis, could identify and report on waste and fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. Individuals guilty of fraud should be convicted, fined, (and if criminal) imprisoned to establish a deterrent from such future practices. Proceeds of fines would go to the cost of implementing this.

3 - Tort reform is VERY significant (as Senator Harry Reid knows well when doctors were fleeing Nevada because of high insurance rates protecting them from malpractice suits). That encourages doctors to perform too many unnecessary (and/or redundant tests), driving up medical costs. Patients seeking second opinions are already protected. It's not just the cap on jury awards, but the COST of doing business for doctors.

4 - Allowing people to purchase generic drugs from Canada (bypassing the FDA) should be looked into - millions of Canadians are not dying from drug poisoning. Pharmaceutical companies recover their costs from medical research from the marketing of new drugs at certain prices, but their prices are kept too high for too long. "Pharma-reform" should be looked into.

5 - Competing across State lines, bypassing the current inter-state commerce laws that allow monopolies - that's why many banks are based in Delaware, because of laws that are very favorable to them. Allow competition between insurance companies across State lines by individuals, small business collectives, government blocks, unions, and large corporations.

6 - The pie is only so big - the slices of the unemployed and illegal immigrants are growing, while the slices who are actually paying premiums into the system are decreasing. Eliminate corporate out-sourcing of jobs to make widgets overseas; importing the widgets back to the U.S. for sale in a shrinking market is just plain crazy. I'd rather pay a little more for an item at Wal-Mart than to cope with high unemployment. (Then reform illegal immigration.)

7 - "Healthcare insurance reform" should only include portability, prohibiting cancellations, and covering pre-existing conditions.

Conclusion: Insurance companies make less profits than most other industries. Hospitals are going broke. Illegal immigrants drain resources. "Healthcare insurance reform" is needed to a lesser degree than "healthcare cost reform". Government mandates are Socialistic in nature; free-market based solutions are more American using capitalism. Smaller government, not bigger. Government regulation in ALL aspects of society raises ALL costs for everyone.

United States manufacturing base: Corporate greed has encouraged joblessness in America - even the jobs that were once exported to Mexico are now being out-sourced from there to India and China...the economies that are actually growing (no Cap and Trade there!). We've come full circle - joblessness reduces the insurance pool, driving up insurance premiums (COST).

If Congress and Obama passes the present healthcare bill with only 51 votes, I predict a very negative outcome for the Democrats in November (and that's putting it VERY mildly). But I doubt Obama or many Democrats don't much care about that very much...they are more concerned about "making history".

Look at Obama's "Plan B" (a plan that only covers about 15 million people - almost as many who lost their jobs over the last 2 years.)

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703510204575085970815851804.html

My next post (maybe) - Get rid of the IRS entirely and implement a National Flat Tax on consumption, not Federal Income Tax on payroll earnings.

Just ask me and I'll fix all our problems

P.S. - Is it just me, or does Pelosi and Reid really enjoy being in each other's company? Hey, just wondering.